Daily Archives: November 6, 2012

Analyzing the Community Center Vote: It’s a win for Proposition 1

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Update, Nov. 7:

Some new data obtained this morning puts the No victory farther out of reach.

According to the Elections website, 65% of the Sammamish ballots have already been returned. With this new figure, this means if 100% of eligible voters returned the ballot (which of course won’t happen) and taking into account the down ballot drop off, there are a maximum of 4,662 votes left to come in. (Again, this assumes a 100% voter turnout.) This is added to the 13,320 votes already cast for a total of 17,962 votes.

To achieve a 50.1% majority, 9,009 votes are required. Election Night returns gave the No vote 6,514 votes; it therefore needs 2,495 more votes for 50.1%. This requires winning 53.5% of the remaining votes (and in reality a higher margin at a more realistic 87% total vote and even more at lower percentages).

Ain’t gonna happen.

Original Post:

I’ve had a chance to do some number crunching. Based on historical voting in Sammamish and the 2 point spread from tonight’s results, and projecting likely turnout, I believe the No vote would have to capture about 52% of the outstanding vote to prevail with a 50.1% result. This is a pick up of 3 percentage points from tonight’s result.

I don’t believe this is possible, so I am calling a win for Proposition 1 Yes votes.

Election Night: Legislative Races of interest to Sammamish

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Here are Election Night results for the 41st and 45th Legislative Districts. The 41st covers the south half of Sammamish and the 45th the north half.

The 5th LD used to cover all but eight Sammamish precincts, but redistricting removed Sammamish from the 5th entirely. It continues to cover Klahanie, however, so I’m including these results.

All state races, including initiatives, can be found on the State website here.

All King County election results may be found here.

Each state and county website updates daily except weekends and Thanksgiving near the end of the business day.

5th LD

Senator

Democrat Mark Mullet is leading with 53.8%; I’m calling this a win for Mullet. This means the Republicans almost certainly won’t take over the State Senate.

House Position 2:

Chad Magendanz is winning with 54.8% of the vote. I’m calling this his win.
Jay Rodne was unopposed for Position 1.

41st LD

Senator

Steve Litzow is leading with 53.5% of the vote. I’m calling this for Litzow.

House Seat #1

Marcia Maxwell has won with 58% of the vote. Judy Clibborn is unopposed for Position 2.

45th LD-House Representatives

Position 1

Roger Goodman has won reelection with 56% of the vote.

Position 2

Larry Springer has won reelection with 57% of the vote.

Election Night: Community City too close to call; Yes leads by 292 (51%)

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Election Night results were posted by King County at about 8:15pm and Proposition 1, the Advisory Vote for the Sammamish Community Center, results are 51% Yes and 49% No (6,806 to 6,514).

I’m calling this race as too close to call tonight. The margin is close enough to make this call. In every Sammamish election since incorporation, the final vote count hasn’t varied more than 1%-2%, so tonight’s margin of 2% is one that can change as votes come in.

Election Night turnout was not shown on King County’s new format. This turnout typically doubles by the final tally in normal elections. In presidential years, Sammamish turnout is between 81% and 85%. The Secretary of State’s office predicts a statewide turnout of 81% and the King County Elections chief predicts an 87% turnout for the county.

Because Proposition 1 is well down-ballot, I don’t expect this vote total to match King County’s by several percentage points.

King County will update results daily except weekends and holidays here.