Election Results, Nov. 9: Yes spread widens daily; and thoughts on “misleading” information

The spread in favor of Yes keeps getting wider:

Election Night: 292

Nov. 7: 359

Nov. 8: 664

Nov. 9: 828, 52.3%-47.7%, 82.31% of votes counted.

Nov. 10: 1,246 margin, 53%-47%, 83.55% of votes counted.

Nov. 13: 1,365 margin, 53.14% to 46.86%, 83.62% voter turnout.

Nov. 14: 1,402 margin, 53.18% to 46.82%, 84.66% voter turnout.

With 79.5% of the vote recorded through yesterday, there is (as I concluded on Election Night) no chance for the No votes to catch up. So I’m not going to post daily results going forward. I’ll post the final result as a matter of record.

In the meantime, a public spat broke out between 2011 election rivals Jim Wasnick and Ramiro Valderrama. There are two articles, here and here.

I had heard even prior to the publishing of the Voters Guide that some in favor of the deal were lamenting that the City wasn’t going to “fact check” the Con statement. The continuing City Council complaints that the Con side was putting out “misleading” information simply shows how naive the Council was when it approved an Advisory vote.

As readers know, I didn’t buy into the assertion that this deal is a “gift” to the Y. The City owns the building and it is awarding a management contract to the Y (if terms are reached). The Y is putting in $5m into a building it does not own, another $1m equipping it and concurrently leasing seven acres to the City for $1 a year for 50 years. I’m hard pressed to see how a private enterprise would match this for a management contract. I opposed the deal on the grounds that a Request for Proposals wasn’t issued to give everyone a fair chance to submit a bid.

But I also recognize that there are those who sincerely believe this is a gift and a misuse of $25m on the part of the City. Is this “misleading?” Maybe to the City Council, but I don’t think so and in any event, I agree with the opponents that the City was misleading when it claimed in marketing materials and public relations that no new taxes would be “required” yet the legal language in the Voters Guide said no new taxes are “expected.” This is a huge difference.

It’s not up to the City to edit or review the Con statement and truth, or perception of the truth, is often in the eye of the beholder. Besides, as we’ve just seen in the Presidential election and those here in the State, the word “truth” disappeared from vocabulary. Finally, in a freedom of speech case, the Washington State Supreme Court years ago ruled that lying in a political campaign is OK.

The City Council made its bed when it decided to have an advisory vote. If it didn’t like the campaign tactics of the Con group, too bad. If some objected that one man’s local version of a Super PAC, too bad. At least this guy is a local corporate citizen, not some remote Karl Rove.

That’s what elections are about. The Council was naive to think otherwise.

Election Results, Nov. 8: Prop 1 Yes Vote Widens Lead

Today’s results:

Yes, 8740, 51.97%

No, 8,076, 48.03%

79.5% of the vote is reported.

Election Results, Nov. 7: Community Center Yes vote still winning, ups margin

King County Elections was well overdue on posting updated results, but here they are for the Proposition 1:

Yes, 7,522, 51.22%

No, 7,163, 48.78%

“Yes” increased its percentage marginally, from 51.10% on Election Night.

“No” decreased its percentage marginally, from 48.9%.


					

Analyzing the Community Center Vote: It’s a win for Proposition 1

Update, Nov. 7:

Some new data obtained this morning puts the No victory farther out of reach.

According to the Elections website, 65% of the Sammamish ballots have already been returned. With this new figure, this means if 100% of eligible voters returned the ballot (which of course won’t happen) and taking into account the down ballot drop off, there are a maximum of 4,662 votes left to come in. (Again, this assumes a 100% voter turnout.) This is added to the 13,320 votes already cast for a total of 17,962 votes.

To achieve a 50.1% majority, 9,009 votes are required. Election Night returns gave the No vote 6,514 votes; it therefore needs 2,495 more votes for 50.1%. This requires winning 53.5% of the remaining votes (and in reality a higher margin at a more realistic 87% total vote and even more at lower percentages).

Ain’t gonna happen.

Original Post:

I’ve had a chance to do some number crunching. Based on historical voting in Sammamish and the 2 point spread from tonight’s results, and projecting likely turnout, I believe the No vote would have to capture about 52% of the outstanding vote to prevail with a 50.1% result. This is a pick up of 3 percentage points from tonight’s result.

I don’t believe this is possible, so I am calling a win for Proposition 1 Yes votes.

Election Night: Community City too close to call; Yes leads by 292 (51%)

Election Night results were posted by King County at about 8:15pm and Proposition 1, the Advisory Vote for the Sammamish Community Center, results are 51% Yes and 49% No (6,806 to 6,514).

I’m calling this race as too close to call tonight. The margin is close enough to make this call. In every Sammamish election since incorporation, the final vote count hasn’t varied more than 1%-2%, so tonight’s margin of 2% is one that can change as votes come in.

Election Night turnout was not shown on King County’s new format. This turnout typically doubles by the final tally in normal elections. In presidential years, Sammamish turnout is between 81% and 85%. The Secretary of State’s office predicts a statewide turnout of 81% and the King County Elections chief predicts an 87% turnout for the county.

Because Proposition 1 is well down-ballot, I don’t expect this vote total to match King County’s by several percentage points.

King County will update results daily except weekends and holidays here.